Monday, January 29, 2007
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Friday, January 26, 2007
Update: Consider some relevant data from the DOE's website. In 2004, Canada and Mexico nearly tied for first place among exporters of crude oil to the U.S., each at 16% of total imports. Saudi Arabia was close behind at 15%. Overall, 25% of the imports were from states bordering the Persian Gulf.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
By the way, any bets on how long before we have something sufficiently popular to be called "the metaverse"?
Monday, January 22, 2007
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Steel combined hyperbolic discounting with a theory of motivation called expectancy theory, and came up with something he calls temporal motivational theory (TMT). It boils down to this:Upon retrospective introspection, the equation seems obvious (though I wonder if the linear and inverse linear proportionalities are less accurate than some other power law.)Utility = E x V / Gamma D
Utility is the desirability of getting something done. E is expectancy, or confidence. V is the value of the job, and includes not only its importance but also its unpleasantness. Gamma stands for how prone a person is to delay doing things. And D means delay, or how far away the consequences of doing, or not doing, the task are.
The bigger the top number compared to the bottom, the less likely a task will be put off. So if you expect to do well at a job (E), and it's a pleasant thing to do (V), and you're not prone to being delayed by distractions (Gamma), and it has to be done right away (D), you're not likely to procrastinate.
If you expect to fail at a difficult task and you're easily distracted and it doesn't have to be done for quite awhile, you're going to procrastinate.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
A bottleneck in the network of blood vessels in the brain.
A cute correlation between stock performance and when Congress is in session.
Insulation vs. Insurance, the start of a most promising Cato Unbound series on health care.
The case against Chinese exceptionalism.
On the proper estimation of uncertain discount rates.
Tyler Cowen on cooking Indian food.
The diminishing role of energy prices.
Prominent among my Christmas gifts received is an Acme Klein Bottle.