Monday, November 01, 2004

Election Prediction

I have no idea who will win. The race is close, the state polls are very much in flux, and no poll knows what turnout will be like, adding an unkown amount to the published margins of error. In this environment, there are just too many different plausible scenarios for who carries which states. Still, I can't resist making a prediction. At half past three this Monday morning, the scenario that to me seems slightly more likely than any of the others is Bush winning 279-259 by carrying the same states he did in 2000 save a New Hampshire-New Mexico swap. I hope I'm wrong though, because if we get a Bush victory that depends on narrow margins in Florida (27 EVs) and Ohio (20 EVs), then things are going to get ugly. (My preferences: clear Bush win > narrow Bush win > clear Kerry win > narrow Kerry win, where "clear" means not worth challenging in court.)


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home