Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Exit polls

I followed the exit poll leaks, as did the election futures markets (both the Iowa and Tradesports ones), and by suppertime Tradesports and I were expecting Kerry to get ~300 EVs. Tradesports went from a 53% chance of Bush victory to a 30% chance in the course of one afternoon. Likewise, Bush sunk from ~50% to ~25% on the Iowa Election Market. Then we all found out that these exit polls had vastly overstated Kerry's strength when Bush pulled ahead in Florida and then Ohio. My anger at being fooled was soothed slightly by hearing Wolf Blitzer on CNN admitting the media was fooled too. I feel especially sorry for the Kerry supporters who took the exit polls seriously. One good thing to come from this fiasco is that no one will pay attention to the exit poll leaks next time around.


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