As the returns came in, things kept looking worse and worse for the GOP incumbents in the above three races. Over the course of half an hour, the price fell from 85 to 45. Ninety minutes later, it was in the low twenties. (Right now, it's still at 6%, waiting on the final count & recount from Virginia.) I got a kick out of watching the returns come in and instantly seeing the market's interpretation. It was far more efficient than scouring the web, TV, and radio for the comments of the precinct experts.
Alas, the markets don't tell me everything I need to know about politics. Things like "Congress will be more protectionist" (HT: Eric) are hard to directly translate into betting contracts. (Though there could be (but aren't, as far as I know) contracts on Trade Promotion Authority, the Doha round, increased tariffs against China...) And then there are exit polls...
1 Comments:
In terms of predictability, tradeSports was amazing. It just confirms an old gambling saying: Your bookie is smarter than you are.
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