Wednesday, January 16, 2008

For the Republican nomination, Fred Thompson is my first choice, but I don't think he'll get it. The speculators at intrade.com expect him to drop out of the race sometime this month. So, who would be my second choice? On the issues, it's Romney, and I vote mainly on issues. Yet, November 2008 is looking to be a blue month, with Republicans having less than a 40% chance of winning the presidency. McCain polls better against the Democrats and attracts more independent voters than the other Republican candidates.

So, how important is winning? Important enough that I'm wavering between Romney & McCain. Why? Since the mid-term elections, I've significantly increased my estimate of the value of divided government. Nothing is getting done, and I love it! (Entitlement reform needs to be done, but undivided Republican control didn't achieve it. It's just not going to get done anytime soon.) With Democratic control of Congress extremely likely in 2009, I really want a Republican President to keep them in check.

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