Friday, August 12, 2011

Predictions from retrospections of predictions

Look at the recent price histories of the following Intrade prediction markets: Now look at recent consumer confidence.

My interpretation is that voters (in aggregate) will not punish Republicans for the debt ceiling game, but they will punish Obama for the economy (and maybe for the debt ceiling game too). Here is Mitch McConnell's corollary:

I think some of our members may have thought the default issue was a hostage you might take a chance at shooting. Most of us didn’t think that. What we did learn is this — it’s a hostage that’s worth ransoming.

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