Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Election futures markets

As I described in my post below, the exit polls fooled the futures markets and me. However, as Daniel Gross describes, the futures markets had called the winner correctly beforehand. (My pre-exit-poll prediction was pretty close too.) As Daniel Gross says, these markets aren't "poll-beaters"; if they were, then the exit polls wouldn't have spooked them so badly. However, these markets are the best poll aggregators out there.

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